I missed many of the great games of week 13 for college football because I was on a cruise ship with extremely limited TV channels. That being said, I was able to catch most of the huge upset that Texas A&M brought to Texas: congrats on the win Dad. Hell, I even got a picture aboard the cruise ship for proof that I saw it (note the TV)! It was a great game! I also caught snippets of LSU being upset by Arkansas in overtime! So much for LSU in the BCS Bowl. Also, Kansas’ hopes were pretty much dashed out with the loss to Mizzou. It’ll be interesting to see how that shakes up the entire Bowl game process of who will play who (granted, there’s still a week to go of football with some of those teams still playing).
Before I get ahead of myself, and speaking of pleasant surprises, Air Force finished strong by beating San Diego State 55-23 and hopefully locking up a Bowl game. Considering that this is the first year under a new coach bringing in new plays and formations, a 9-3 record for 2007 is an outstanding accomplishment! That hasn’t happened for Air Force in a very long time. My only regret is that I couldn’t watch (or listen to) some of the more emotional games, specifically those against Utah and TCU. Troy Calhoun, my hat’s off to you. Keep the momentum for the 2008 season!
Onto the football pool: Fresno State (Skaterat’s team) still has one game left to play next week for official pool scoring, but that doesn’t affect the winner in either systems at this point (Astro’s official scoring or my “crazy math” system). The only thing that can change is Skaterat could drop from 2nd to 3rd in Astro’s scoring. Below is the final comparison chart (minus the points earned by the upcoming last Fresno St game):
A closer look: For the official results (as they stand now) has the Top-4 as
- JTI (Notre Dame) with 155
- Skaterat (Fresno St) with 120
- Hot Carl (Colorado) with 105
- Snakeye (AFA) with 85
The unofficial Snakeye results has the Top-4 as
- Trav’s Dad (Texas A&M) with 215
- JTI (Notre Dame) with 210
- Snakeye (AFA) with 205
- Hot Carl (Colorado) with 195
Though the 3 of the 4 top teams are the same in both systems, there’s not much more in common. The top 6 teams in Snake’s system are all pretty close together mainly because of big upsets or losses with more than a 28 point difference. The upsets are what gave some teams the advantage, as they should. Hell, Air Force should be aptly rewarded for beating TCU, Illinois should be aptly rewarded for beating Ohio State, Texas A&M should be aptly rewarded for beating Texas, etc.
The Snake-system also held a tighter grouping (ie, standard deviation), making the “unofficial” pool just a little more exciting and volatile, so pretty much everyone gets an even shot at #1 up until the last week. The stats for each system are as follows:
Astro’s official college football pool:
- Average score: 76 points
- Median score: 80 points
- Standard Dev: 57 points
Snake’s unofficial scoring:
- Average score: 182 points
- Median Score: 190 points
- Standard Dev: 28 points
Lastly, using Mandel‘s 119 weekly rankings proved pretty accurate for pool points. If we’re looking to adopt a new points system to make “official” for next year’s College Football Pool, this would be it with no changes. In fact, I’d take out the “30 points for defeated/undefeated seasons” because chances are, if you fall into either category, you’re probably winning the pool and don’t need the extra points. Just my two cents.
All said and done, I’m happy with the way my proposed system worked. Another great college football season is all but over, minus the Bowl games. It was fun to be in the Pool this year (even though I didn’t win). I look forward to the pool, and the nail-biting games with upsets and all, for next year. I’ll leave you (if your ever so curious) with the final tabulations for both scoring systems to the right if you want to see the specific score breakdown for your team.
JTI: my case of good beer (per the official rules) will be at your doorstep before New Years. Congrats on winning the pool. If you think about it, the bet was initially to benefit the shittiest team out there. That was by far your team: Notre Dame. Better luck next year (as far as their 2008 record will go). Hopefully Weis will be replaced.