And round and round we go again. This time, all nations participating walk away with the false satisfaction that they’ve reached an agreement. My opinion: I don’t think so, Tim. Seriously? I’d love for everything to be alright in “the Land of the Not-Quite Right.” But I have my doubts. Now, granted, the following is my opinion and complete speculation (ie, no information to back other than what has already happened and my own damn opinion) on my part:
Sure, the big nations have finally (after many, many, many failed attempts) seemed to have reached a deal with North Korea. Do I think it will hold up? Absolutely not. You see, North Korea has a track record of playing the victim. They’ll go into these talks, make people think they are willing to negotiate, and then make some last-minute unresonable demand that no one will accept and pull out of the talks, getting nowhere. So now we take a step forward. Now we think that we’ve reached an agreement (which the Chonger has yet to approve, by the way) for North Korea to shut down nuclear ambitions, in exchange for a ludicrous amount of energy (in the form of oil, gas, and kilowatts of electricity) in exchange. If approved, North Korea will most likely be expected to turn in their nuclear fuel and weaponry.
First, I think that North Korea will hold everyone’s interest here for the next few days, and then back out. So say like North Korea actually agrees to this, if it gets approved (which it may not) I think North Korea has some sort of timeline to make it happen. From what I’ve seen out of the strategy of both North Korea and Iran: buying time. North Korea will go along with this up until the last second, and then reneg on the whole deal because all of the sudden, they see something as “unfair” that they must’ve completely missed in the original negotiations.
Reguardless, where do I see this going? Again, absolutely nowhere. With the current world situation, you have North Korea blowing off missiles over Japan, Iran defiantly standing by their “peaceful” nuclear reactors (of which, by the way, the “President” of Iran seems to forecast Isreal getting wiped off the map), and the two nations seemingly in cahouts with each other (again, I think Iranian officials were present for North Korea’s unveiling of inter-Japan missiles).
Honestly (and again, this is my intuition talking here), I think both North Korea and Iran are out for one thing: to buy time until either one of them provokes military action. It’s sad, but it’s like dealing with two spoiled kids who get their own way all the time. When that happens, the only thing you’re left with as a parent is either to allow them to get their own way or to put your foot down and punish them. As with the current world situation, we’ve been allowing these countries to do what they have been without consequence or retribution. I fear the day the world finally decides to put their foot down, because by then it’ll probably be too late…